Thrill of the Spreadsheet: SV Rotation with MS Procs

Sylvanus Survival Hunters Multistrike Rotation

I'm really torn, regarding how I feel about the change in Survival's priorities during various procs we get.  On the one hand, I really enjoy changing up the rotation every now and then, or more, I like having something to react to.  As a spec without any major CDs or an execute, having a different rotation during procs breaks up a the monotony a bit.  On the other hand, I feel like I've been trained to be annoyed any time Arcane Shot is better than Explosive Shot.  So, who knows how this one will end up.

It's certainly not a secret at this point, but for those curious what I'm talking about: when an Arcane Shot or Multi-Shot Multistrikes, it applies an additional tick of Serpent Sting. So if your Arcane Shot gets both multistrikes, it does it's normal damage, plus a tick of Serpent sting, plus the damage of both multistrikes, plus the damage of 2 more Serpent Sting ticks (one for each multistrike). Because of that, as you get closer to Multistrike capping (6270 MS unbuffed) during trinket procs, the relative value of Arcane or Multi-Shot goes way up.

Arcane Shot

Let's start by looking at Arcane, since we'll have a degree less of complication only thinking about single target, for the moment.  Let's say I'm a typical, heroic geared hunter, with 670 gear.  My Arcane Shot without any multistrikes, will do about 19,495.1 damage, on average (ok, not about, but exactly, I pulled these off logs).  Of that, 13,024.3 is from the Arcane Shot itself, and 6470.7 is coming from the Serpent Sting tick.

As our Multistrike goes up, we'll see our average damage increasing in several different ways.  First off, we've got the damage from the Arcane Multistriking, which can be represented as MS%*.72 (if you'd like an explanation of that, check out this article here).  Then for each Arcane Shot, our chance to get one extra Serpent Sting tick is:


And our chance at getting both exta Serpent Sting Ticks is simply:


Adding those together to get our expected value, we have:

Which simplifies to:

Knowing the chance we have to to deal multistrike damage, and the chance we have to apply additional serpent sting ticks, and the chance those serpent sting ticks have to themselves multistrike, we can calculate the expected value of each Arcane Shot using the following (note, for anyone following at home, I'm going to use "m" to represent multistrike%, A to represent base arcane damage, and S to represent average damage from a tick of Serpent Sting):

(A+S+Sm2)(1+.72m) = Avg Damage per Cast

With that, we can plug in the damage from Arcane Shot and Serpent Sting along with variable Multistrike to get the expected value of the entire shot, which we can then compare with other abilities (which scale linearly with varying MS%).  

For Arcane, that might look something like this:

AbilityMS%Avg./castFocus Cast TimeDam/CTD/FThrill D/F
Serpent Sting0%6283.4
Arcane Shot0%18930.630118930.6631.01893.1
Arcane Shot10%21640.830121640.8721.42164.1
Arcane Shot20%24531.930124531.9817.72453.2
Arcane Shot25%26045.330126045.3868.22604.5
Arcane Shot30%27604.030127604.0920.12760.4
Arcane Shot35%29207.930129207.9973.62920.8
Arcane Shot40%30857.030130857.01028.63085.7
Arcane Shot50%34291.030134291.01143.03429.1
Arcane Shot60%37906.030137906.01263.53790.6
Arcane Shot70%41701.930141701.91390.14170.2
Arcane Shot80%45678.830145678.81522.64567.9
Arcane Shot90%49836.730149836.71661.24983.7
Arcane Shot100%54175.530154175.51805.95417.6

*I added a new column, since both Multi-shot and Arcane benefit from Thrill of the Hunt, and thought it would be handier to have the Damage per Focus during Thrill right there, instead of making a new chart.

What we see here is the value of Arcane Shot shooting way up with greater amounts of Multistrike, doing 226.18% more damage at 100% MS (than 0% MS) where as most abilities do only 72% more damage with 100% MS than they do with 0% Multistrike.

More simply put, Arcane Shot benefits from Multistrike at a rate of 2.26% increased damage per 1% MS, where as most abilities increase at a rate of .72% increased damage per 1% MS.


Multi-Shot works with the same functionality as Arcane Shot, but then increases, of course, per target.  It would take up a lot of space on the page to include everything, but I'll still include a few target sizes to show the general idea:

AbilityMS%Avg./castFocus CTDam/CTD/FThrill D/F
Serpent Sting0%6470.7
Multishot (st)0%8934.24018934.2223.4446.7
Multishot (3t)0%26802.640126802.6670.11340.1
Multishot (3t)20%39545.240139545.2988.61977.3
Multishot (3t)30%46755.140146755.11168.92337.8
Multishot (3t)40%54524.140154524.11363.12726.2
Multishot (3t)50%62852.140162852.11571.33142.6
Multishot (3t)60%71739.340171739.31793.53587.0
Multishot (3t)70%81185.440181185.42029.64059.3
Multishot (3t)80%91190.740191190.72279.84559.5
Multishot (3t)90%101755.0401101755.02543.95087.8
Multishot (3t)100%112878.4401112878.42822.05643.9
Multishot (4t)0%35736.840135736.8893.41786.8
Multishot (4t)20%52727.040152727.01318.22636.3
Multishot (4t)30%62340.240162340.21558.53117.0
Multishot (4t)40%72698.840172698.81817.53634.9
Multishot (4t)50%83802.840183802.82095.14190.1
Multishot (4t)60%95652.340195652.32391.34782.6
Multishot (4t)70%108247.3401108247.32706.25412.4
Multishot (4t)80%121587.6401121587.63039.76079.4
Multishot (4t)90%135673.4401135673.43391.86783.7
Multishot (4t)100%150504.6401150504.63762.67525.2
Multishot (5t)0%44671.040144671.01116.82233.6
Multishot (5t)20%65908.740165908.71647.73295.4
Multishot (5t)30%77925.240177925.21948.13896.3
Multishot (5t)40%90873.540190873.52271.84543.7
Multishot (5t)50%104753.6401104753.62618.85237.7
Multishot (5t)60%119565.4401119565.42989.15978.3
Multishot (5t)70%135309.1401135309.13382.76765.5
Multishot (5t)80%151984.5401151984.53799.67599.2
Multishot (5t)90%169591.7401169591.74239.88479.6
Multishot (5t)100%188130.7401188130.74703.39406.5

Basically, Multi-Shot increases in damage at a rate of 4.21% per 1% of Multistrike.

Priority Rotational Changes

How this affects our rotation will change slightly depending on anyone's actual Multistrike rating from their gear, and which versions of Multistrike trinkets you have.

For Scales of Doom, we can get anywhere from 1743 MS on the 655 version, up to 2439 MS from the heroic WF version.  The Bleeding Heart of the Mountain provides an on-use MS buff from 1467 - 2050 (ilvl 665 up to ilvl 701).  And of course, Oglethorp's Missle Splitter gives us a proc of 750 MS.

Any SV hunter would have to plug in their own MS stat, and compare it to the stats they have when they have MS procs to get a definitive priority change. But it's a pretty safe assumption to say that any time you have Scales of Doom proc'ed and Thrill of the Hunt proc'ed, then Arcane will become your top priority ability (or if you're fighting 3+ targets, then Multi-Shot).

If you don't have Thrill of the Hunt proc'ed, the answer's a bit murkier.  Around 80% MS, Arcane Shot becomes more valuable than Explosive Shot.  As for other single target abilities like a Murder of Crows or Black Arrow, Arcane will never have a higher Damage per Cast, or Damage per Focus rate, but because both of these abilities have longer CDs, you may end up being better off using Arcane Shot for the duration of the proc.  If that means delaying BA by more than ~5 seconds, or delaying aMoC by more than ~15 seconds, then you'll be better off casting them on CD.  If you'll only be delaying them by a few seconds, then it'll be better to cast the Arcanes for the duration of the proc.  

Survival AoE Part 2: Thrill of the Hunt

World of Warcraft Hunter Multi-Shot AoE

After my Survival AoE post last friday, several people pointed out that I had neglected to include the rotational changes that happen with Thrill of the Hunt procs.  Instead of making that already long post even longer, I thought I'd just add in this extra bit here.  For those interested, the previous post can be found here.  For anyone interested, I'm currently working on my next Thrill of the Spreadsheet which is going to look at the details of rotational change when you have Multistrike proc's.

If we readjust the applicable lines in our spreadsheet, we get section which look like the following:

AbilityTick/HitCritAvg./castFocus Cast TimeDam/CTDam/Focus
Serpent Sting5028.810173.77604.4
Multishot (st)2079.54074.22981.42012981.4149.07
MS+SS (st)7108.314247.910585.820110585.8529.29
MS+SS (2t)14216.628495.821171.620121171.61058.58
MS+SS (3t)21324.942743.731757.420131757.41587.87
MS+SS (4t)28433.256991.642343.220142343.22117.16
MS+SS (5t)35541.571239.552929.0201529292646.45
MS+SS (6t)42649.885487.463514.820163514.83175.74
MS+SS (7t)49758.199735.374100.620174100.63705.03
MS+SS (8t)56866.4113983.284686.420184686.44234.32

Arcane Shot

Our Arcane Shot is still going to be used to apply Serpent Sting, and to dump focus up until 3 targets. 

AbilityTick/HitCritAvg./castFocus Cast TimeDam/CTDam/Focus
Arcane Shot9481.819146.115306.210115306.21530.6
Arcane+SS tick14510.629319.822910.610122910.62291.1
Arcane+SS Full34625.870014.653328.210153328.25332.8


The next big change I'll mention is TotH's effect on the priority of Barrage. For convenience, the efficiency of Barrage looks like:

AbilityTick/HitCritAvg./castFocus Cast TimeDam/CTDam/Focus
Barrage (st)2687.55610.147971.4602.8316951.0799.5
Barrage (2t)4031.38415.271957.1602.8325426.61199.3
Barrage (3t)5375.011220.295942.9602.8333902.11599.0
Barrage (4t)6718.814025.3119928.6602.8342377.61998.8
Barrage (5t)8062.516830.3143914.3602.8350853.12398.6
Barrage (6t)9406.319635.4167900.0602.8359328.62798.3
Barrage (7t)10750.022440.4191885.7602.8367804.13198.1
Barrage (8t)12093.825245.5215871.4602.8376279.73597.9

As you can see, due to the high cost of Barrage, MS is now the more efficient shot at every number of targets; so we'll want to use up our TotH charges before casting Barrage.  It's worth mentioning that there are situations where you can hit a larger number of targets with Barrage than with Multi-Shot. If you can get even one additional target with Barrage, it goes back to being a more efficient ability than Multi-Shot.  

Other Abilities

AbilityTick/HitCritAvg./castFocus Cast TimeDam/CTDam/Focus
Black Arrow5246.510692.770666.735170666.72019.0
Explosive Shot3812.67806.122736.715122736.71515.8
A Murder of Crows4599.69469.8109200.0301109200.03640.0

The other changes we'll encounter are fairly minor, but tend to make our rotations a bit complicated. For Explosive Shot, We'll now see it overtaken by Multi-Shot at only 3 targets.  That is to say, if your Multi-Shot will hit 3 or more targets and TotH is proc'ed (but LnL is not proc'ed), then Multi-Shot we'll want to use Multi-Shot.  

Black Arrow will remain a higher priority than Multi-Shot (while TotH is proc'ed) up until 4 targets, at which point we'll just want to spam the TotH Multi-Shot until we're out of TotH charges.  And lastly, we'll continue to use a Murder of Crows up until 7 targets.

It's important to clarify here that we're not talking about removing Black Arrow, Explosive Shot or a Murder of Crows from our rotations.  They will remain a part of our rotation, we'll just be using Multi-Shot (when we have the number of targets described above) until we have used up all of our TotH charges. When TotH isn't proc'ed, we'll continue to use our typical priority rotation, as described in the post linked above.  

Explosive Trap will be the only ability we'll continue to use on CD, regardless of whether or not TotH is proc'ed.  The only exception to this would be if the timer on TotH was about to run out, at which point you could delay Explosive Trap by a few GCDs to use up the rest of your TotH charges.  This should rarely be an issue if you're following the rest of your priorities correctly, though.